Félix explains how external factors—from the war in Europe to inflationary pressure and weather events—affect the way customers book, cancel, and interact with hotels. The conversation also covers essential digital strategies to reduce dependence on external platforms, increase direct bookings, and retain customers even during volatile periods. From CRM, digital campaigns, artificial intelligence, to dynamic pricing, the interview outlines a practical guide for hotels looking to stay competitive and proactively attract clients.

How do periods of uncertainty, like the current state of calamity, affect customer behavior and hotel bookings?

What we are experiencing is a perfect example of how uncertainty spreads far beyond the actual problem. Uncertainty doesn’t only come from within. The international context directly impacts Portuguese consumer behavior. The war in Europe, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, inflationary pressure—all of this makes families scrutinize their budgets more carefully. Traveling is no longer an automatic decision; it has become a considered one. When spending cuts are necessary, tourism is one of the first areas to be affected.

In Portugal, this translates into more hesitant customers who compare more, research more, and decide later. On top of that, internal episodes, such as recent weather disturbances in the central region, triggered a wave of cancellations in areas that weren’t even affected, fueled by media alarmism rather than on-the-ground reality. Customer behavior during uncertain periods follows a clear pattern: first they cancel, then they reconsider, and finally return—but only if there is proactive communication. The problem arises when we wait instead of taking the initiative. Uncertainty does not destroy demand; it delays it. And whoever communicates first captures it.

What digital strategies can help hotels reduce dependence on external platforms and minimize the risk of cancellations?

Today, many hotels in Portugal pay high commissions, lack control over customer relationships, and have no revenue predictability.

Dependence on OTAs is structural. Many hotels, with the majority of bookings via Booking.com or Expedia, pay heavy commissions per transaction and lose direct customer relationships. To reverse this, there are three concrete digital levers: a fully optimized booking engine—not just installed and forgotten; a segmented email marketing strategy for past guests with exclusive offers for direct booking; and retargeting campaigns that capture visitors who didn’t complete a booking. At the same time, flexible cancellation policies on direct channels, with better conditions than OTAs, create a compelling reason for customers to book directly.

What concrete actions can hotels implement to increase direct bookings through their website or owned channels?

First: intelligent rate parity—the official website should never be more expensive than OTAs, but it can offer additional value: included breakfast, guaranteed late check-out, upgrades subject to availability. Second: the booking process on the website must be fast and frictionless; any additional complexity is harmful. Third: real-time chat with human or AI-assisted support at the point of decision—this is where direct bookings are won or lost. Fourth: Google Hotel Ads with direct bidding—many Portuguese hotels still do not use this tool, leaving visibility to OTAs that could be captured at a much lower cost.

How can CRM and personalized communication contribute to customer loyalty, even in unstable periods?

CRM is the most undervalued asset in Portuguese hospitality. Direct bookings allow for much more effective collection and analysis of guest data, creating a foundation for long-term personalization and loyalty. During unstable periods, CRM is the difference between recovering a cancellation or losing it forever. A hotel that can send a personalized message to a guest who cancelled, offering alternative dates, flexible terms, and an exclusive benefit, sees a completely different recovery rate than one that does not. The problem arises when hotels have CRM installed but no strategy for its use. Having the tool without a process is the same as not having it. Personalization starts with data: room preferences, past consumption, chosen plan, geographic origin. With this structured, relevant communication is possible before, during, and after the stay.

What types of digital campaigns work best to ensure visibility and trust with customers during market uncertainty?

During uncertain periods, campaigns that reduce perceived risk and incentivize early decisions convert best.

Full-refund cancellation policies are now a conversion argument, not just a service policy. When communicated clearly and prominently in a campaign—not buried in terms—they remove the main booking barrier: fear of losing money if plans change. This should be the headline, not the disclaimer.

Progressive advance-booking discounts reward early decision-makers and create legitimate urgency: 20% off for 90-day bookings, 15% for 60 days, 10% for 30 days. This mechanism generates predictable booking peaks, improves cash flow, and justifies targeted campaigns for different booking windows.

Room + activity packages increase average booking value and reduce direct price comparison with OTAs, which only sell accommodation. Packages with included experiences are harder to compare by price and create a perception of higher value, especially when activities are local, exclusive, or limited.

Holiday campaigns—birthdays, Valentine’s Day, long weekends—justify themed campaigns with a set deadline, increasing click-through rates and reducing decision time. The customer has an external reason to book, reducing price pressure.

Flash discounts (24–72 hours), communicated via email and social media, activate the hotel’s own base and create urgency without permanently devaluing the brand. The key is genuine scarcity—limited rooms or specific dates—and direct communication, without intermediaries.

What role does artificial intelligence play in predicting cancellations and dynamically adjusting offers and pricing?

AI is transforming revenue management irreversibly. AI systems already adjust prices automatically based on demand patterns and occupancy history. What truly differentiates AI is predictive cancellation capability. A well-fed system can identify patterns—type of customer, booking channel, lead time, behavioral history—and anticipate cancellations days or weeks in advance. This allows proactive actions: targeted communication, upgrade offers, enhanced guarantees. In Portugal, most hotels still operate reactively—lowering prices when occupancy drops. AI allows a predictive approach: anticipating declines and acting before they happen. Entry barriers have dropped significantly, and accessible solutions exist for independent hotels.

What practical AI applications can be used to improve customer experience and increase direct booking conversions?

Predictive booking analysis allows anticipation of demand patterns weeks or months ahead, crossing historical occupancy data, seasonality, local events, and website navigation behavior. This enables identification of low-demand periods before they appear in bookings, activation of preventive campaigns at the right time, and allocation of paid media budget where ROI is highest.

AI-assisted dynamic pricing goes beyond traditional rate management. Current systems analyze real-time property occupancy, competitor rates, historical elasticity by segment, and booking speed, suggesting or applying automatic price adjustments. The goal is not to be the cheapest, but to maximize revenue per available room in each time window.

Automated competitive benchmarking continuously monitors competitor rates, availability, and conditions on major OTAs and direct channels without manual research. It generates alerts when a competitor significantly changes strategy, allowing fast, informed responses.

Abandonment pattern analysis identifies where users drop off in the booking funnel, which rates or conditions cause hesitation, and which segments are most likely to complete bookings. This allows redesigning the booking flow, adjusting messaging at each stage, and recovering conversions that would otherwise be lost to OTAs.

Periods like Easter can be seen as risk, but also opportunity. What digital marketing strategies can turn this uncertainty into a competitive advantage?

Easter 2026 is particularly interesting. Booking lead times have shortened; consumers tend to book later, especially in unstable contexts. This is an opportunity for hotels with flexible policies and agile communication. The concrete strategy involves three stages: now—launch urgency campaigns with limited availability and free cancellation; two weeks before Easter—reactivate those who abandoned or browsed without booking; Easter week—run last-minute campaigns targeting nearby audiences.

How can hotels balance visibility, price, and customer experience on owned channels versus external platforms during high volatility?

The ideal model is not abandoning OTAs—it’s using them strategically. During volatility, OTAs attract new customers who don’t yet know the hotel. Direct channels retain customers who already know the brand and for whom the added-value proposition matters. The most common strategic mistake is competing with OTAs on price in the direct channel—a war the hotel cannot win. Compete on value: what does the customer gain by booking directly that they can’t via Booking.com? The answer must be clear, tangible, and actively communicated.

What emerging digital trends in the hospitality sector should marketers follow to navigate periods of instability?

Four trends are redefining the sector and still have much room for adoption in Portugal. First, generative AI search—Google AI Overview and tools like ChatGPT already influence travel decisions. Hotels not optimized for these results will silently lose visibility. Second, guest journey automation—digital check-in, automated pre- and post-stay messages, contextualized communication—is becoming an expectation, not a differentiator. Third, high-value tourism is accelerating in Portugal, with more units targeting the luxury segment; marketing must support this repositioning. Fourth, real-time reputation management—a response to a negative review within hours has a radically different conversion impact than a response after a week. This requires processes, not just goodwill.